By Ostap Hrynchak
Sweden’s accession to NATO in 2024 marked a significant change in its long-standing policy of military non-alignment. Fuelled by the escalating security concerns in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic defence network symbolises a broader continental shift towards a renewed focus on European security and rearmament. In 2023, Sweden’s defence budget increased by 28 per cent, with current plans for an 18 per cent increase from the previous year. This trajectory targets a defence spending of 2.8 per cent of GDP in 2026, with an eventual goal of reaching 3.5 per cent by 2032. If successful, Sweden will become one of the largest spenders on defence within the Atlantic Alliance, surpassing current NATO requirements of a minimum of 2 per cent of GDP spending on defence. Although Sweden has long been a major arms exporter, renowned for its advanced yet independent defence technologies, the changes in European security, the accession to NATO, and the war in Ukraine have shifted its production focus from global exports to urgently meeting European security needs and strengthening collective deterrence within the region.
A Brief History of Swedish Defence before 2014.
Before the Ukraine war, Sweden’s defence policy rested on armed neutrality, based on the unilateral commitment not to engage in wars or international conflicts. Such a policy was chosen in the wake of the Second World War and maintained throughout the Cold War. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Sweden scaled back on defence spending, pursuing economic cooperation with Europe but maintaining limited military collaboration. Prior to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Swedish defence companies operated in a markedly different strategic and industrial environment – one shaped by post-Cold War optimism, shrinking defence budgets and a focus on global export orientation rather than domestic and European rearmament. Trends in Swedish defence policies mirrored its stance on neutrality, as seen with the abolition of conscription in 2010. In 2017, however, following issues in military recruitment and the rise of security threats on the European continent, this was reintroduced.
The Post-American Moment: Sweden and the Rebalancing of European Security
Amid growing uncertainty about the future of U.S support for European and NATO defence, President Donald Trump’s statements regarding his willingness to defend his European allies have accelerated Europe’s drive toward greater military self-reliance. This erosion of confidence in the U. S’s readiness to support Europe was further worsened when rumours circulating widely among European defence circles began emerging of a supposed “kill switch” embedded within the U. S’s fifth-generation F-35 jets. Although such claims remain unproven, they have nonetheless influenced procurement decisions, with countries such as Spain cancelling purchasing orders of the aircraft in favour of European-made alternatives like the Eurofighter Typhoon. Sweden, on the other hand, is equipped with the JAS 39 Gripen, a versatile, multi-role fighter jet developed entirely by Swedish defence company SAAB. With more European countries looking to move away from U.S dependence, the Gripen could become a future option for air forces on the continent.
As a result of joining NATO, military cooperation between Sweden and European countries is becoming increasingly evident, with a €1.5 billion arms deal signed with Poland and a joint strategic partnership agreement, aimed at enhancing cooperation on defence, economic development and support for Ukraine. Furthermore, Swedish NATO membership has unlocked access to a wider market with substantial funding for collaborative projects and technological advancements, particularly in European defence. It would be misleading to portray Swedish defence as influencing Europe’s security in only one direction, with Sweden also benefiting from its growing relationship with the European defence sector. In 2025, the Swedish Defence Material Administration had finalised two artillery ammunition contracts with Nammo and Rheinmetall Denel Munition, the largest investment Sweden has made into artillery ammunition since the 1980s. The agreement strengthens Sweden’s position in supplying rounds to its domestically produced Archer artillery system, which has gained increasing interest in European countries like Latvia and the United Kingdom due to its battle-proven performance in Ukraine. Overall, the combination of uncertainties in the future of the U. S’s role in supporting defence within Europe could have the potential for Sweden to rise in supporting Europe’s renewed focus on security.
Bridging the Frontlines: Sweden’s Role in the Ukraine War
Once a neutral mediator, Sweden now stands among Europe’s most determined defenders of Ukraine, supplying weapons, training, and political backing that signal a new era in its security policy. As of September 2025, the Swedish government has rolled out its 20th package of military aid to Ukraine, bringing its total contribution to Ukraine to €3 billion. Crucially, Sweden has supplied advanced, modern systems that other European countries have been hesitant to provide in larger quantities, namely the domestically produced CV90 infantry fighting vehicle and the above-mentioned Archer self-propelled artillery system. In more recent news, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a letter of intent concerning cooperation in the field of air capabilities. The deal set the foundation for the export of up to 150 Gripen fighter jets, which would make it Sweden’s biggest-ever arms sale, highlighting the deepening role of Sweden in the continent’s defence. Through military support to Ukraine, the war has provided a real-world demonstration of Swedish technology, effectively acting as a live testbed and marketing tool for its defence industry. Consequently, boosting European interest and reinforces Sweden’s growing role as a lead supplier within NATO’s emerging European defence ecosystem. Simultaneously, it has accelerated domestic investments in defence production, promoting the expansion of Saab’s manufacturing capacity and stimulating job creation in the sector. Naturally, support for Ukraine helps to secure domestic support for increased military spending within Sweden.
Conclusion
Sweden’s trajectory from neutrality to becoming a central actor in European defence represents one of the most profound strategic realignments in modern Europe. Traditionally, the continent’s security architecture has relied heavily on U.S. military backing and, within Europe, the leadership of France and Germany. Yet, the evolving geopolitical landscape suggests that Sweden is emerging as a new and credible contender in shaping Europe’s defence future. Its military aid to Ukraine, rapid defence industrial expansion, and integration into NATO have elevated it from a peripheral actor to a core contributor to the continent’s security.
Society of European Future 
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